000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140400 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS NEAR 15.3N 102.5W 996 MB AT 0300 UTC MOVING SW OR 225 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM NW QUADRANT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE CENTER OF MANUEL IN THE PAST FEW HOURS... WITH A LONG BAND OF STRONG TSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF MANUEL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OF MANUEL...EXCEPT ONLY 45 NM ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT. AN ELONGATED LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EPAC NEAR 10N110W. BOTH TROPICAL STORM MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID...IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROADER CIRCULATION AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INLAND ACROSS COASTAL MEXICO IN THE GENERAL AREA OF MANZANILLO SUNDAY MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITHIN THE ELONGATED GYRE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL BE EXACERBATED BY TROPICAL STORM MANUEL. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE WMO HEADER/AWIPS HEADERS WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 07N75W TO 13N84W TO 18N90W WHERE IT FRACTURES...THEN RESUMES ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUING TO TROPICAL STORM MANUEL TO 16N108W TO 12N120W TO 10N133W TO 09.5N138W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 8W AND 90W. BEYOND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 12.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 92W AND 112W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 114W. ...DISCUSSION... A BLOCKING TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...N OF 20N AND W OF 110W...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING EWD AND UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN-MOST TROUGH...LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S....AND EXTENDS NE INTO NW MEXICO. A TUTT LOW WAS SHIFTING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS EXTREME S TEXAS AND INTO N CENTRAL MEXICO...AND PRODUCING UPPER CONVERGENCE AND SINKING MOTION TO ITS S TO 19N ACROSS MEXICO. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SMALL LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE ACROSS SE MEXICO IS OCCURRING UNDER A LIGHTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE PERSISTENT PULSING DEEP CONVECTION MAINTAINING A DIVERGENT UPPER PATTERN AND GENERAL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ACROSS THE REGION E OF 110W. ELSEWHERE AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 28N133W AND WILL DRIFT SW AND COLLAPSE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A MODEST PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS MEXICO IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NNW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDING WWD TO 116W. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WERE RUNNING 5-7 FT WITH SMALL NW SWELL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MONSOON CIRCULATION AT LOW LEVELS REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED...WITH AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATING A LARGE SWATH OF SW TO S WINDS ABOUT 300 NM WIDE EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN COASTLINE E OF MANUEL TO NEAR 10N110W. A RATHER LARGE ZONE OF 25-30 KT WINDS WAS INDICATED WITHIN THIS AREA WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT TO AROUND 15 FT. THIS LONG FETCH OF STRONG SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHIFT SLOWLY N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH DRIFTS N...AND CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTS AND COASTAL WATERS FROM GUATEMALA NW TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. $$ STRIPLING