000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ILL-DEFINED OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THEN RESUMES FROM 19N109W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N124W TO 
10N138W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N138W TO 10N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON 
TROUGH OR ITCZ IS NOTED.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM N OF A 
LINE FROM 10N84W TO 08N90W...AND WITHIN 150 NM W OF A LINE FROM 
16N98W TO 12N95W WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE ARE 
MOVING W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 108W S OF A CONVERGENCE LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE NW OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WHICH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT 
THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE NW CORNER WHILE 
ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER REMAIN JUST NW OF THE AREA. A 
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS TO THE NE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING 
OVER CALIFORNIA. TO THE S AND SE...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 24N105W. A MAINLY DRY AND 
STABLE AIRMASS IS PRESENT W OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH 17N120W TO 10N140W. UPPER 
LEVEL EASTERLIES/ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 
ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1018 MB HIGH PRES IS OVER THE N 
CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 26N128W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK 1012 MB LOW 
PRES IS NEAR 12N124W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT NO DEEP 
CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W OF THE 
LOW FROM 16N132W TO 11N134W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT 
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SPORADIC WEAK LOW PRES 
POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG IT.

MODERATE TO FRESH SW FLOW IS S OF A CONVERGENCE LINE FROM NEAR 
14N98W TO 10N112W. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH SEAS OF 8 FT 
WHICH ARE COMBINING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IN THE 8 TO 
10 FT RANGE...COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS S OF 12N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 120W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER 
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS 
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 11 FT S AND SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
LEWITSKY