000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 03N ALONG 94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM W OF A LINE FROM 14N95W TO 10N91W...AND ALSO N OF 13N E OF 
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ILL-
DEFINED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA 
FROM 09N80W TO 15N90W THEN RESUMES FROM 15N108W TO 11N140W. NO 
ITCZ E OF 140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DIRECTLY RELATED TO 
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS S OF 06N E OF 80W NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 91.

...DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX ARRANGEMENT OF THREE ANTICYCLONES DOMINATE MOST OF THE 
BASIN ALOFT. THE WESTERN AND SMALLER ANTICYCLONES ARE LOCATED AT 
25N131W AND 16N137W. DRY SUBSIDING AND STABLE AIR IS W OF A LINE 
FROM 23N110W TO 18N110W TO 10N140W. THE LARGER THIRD ANTICYCLONE 
IS OVER SW MEXICO AT 21N105W. THIS ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO 
ADVECT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO 
THE W COVERING THE WATERS FROM 09N TO 20N E OF 110W. ELSEWHERE 
ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL EASTERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT.

AT THE SURFACE...1022 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 45N135W WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE 
S THEN SE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WATERS. OTHERWISE... 
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE PRESENT WITH A FAIRLY 
FLAT AND BROAD PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS 
MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO GET ABSORBED BY 
A BROAD REGION OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING SW OF MEXICO S OF 20N W OF 
100W. FRESH SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AS THIS BROAD LOW SETS UP...BUILDING SEAS TO GREATER THAN 
8 FT. THIS REGION WILL COMBINE WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL 
WHICH IS CURRENTLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. A MERGED AREA 
OF 8 TO 11 FT SEAS WILL COVER THE WATERS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
BY A LINE FROM 10N85W TO 16N102W TO 11N115W TO 05N100W TO 05N90W 
TO 10N85W BY LATE WED NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE 
TO FRESH TO STRONG S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BEYOND 48 HOURS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NW CORNER BY LATE 
WED NIGHT...DISSIPATING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BREACH 30N140W 
THEREAFTER. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER BEHIND 
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS.

$$
LEWITSKY