000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W ENTERING GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WHERE POOL OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE LINGERS LIKELY TO FIRE OFF PLENTY OF TSTMS OVER
GUATEMALA...YUCATAN AND FAR SE MEXICO...INCLUDING GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT WATERS. WAVE ACTING AS STRONG UPLIFTING
MECHANISM IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE CONVECTION THROUGH
LATE WED.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 16N105W TO 13N110W TO 13N135W
TO BEYOND 11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX STRUCTURE OF THREE ANTICYCLONES COVER MOST OF BASIN
ALOFT WITH DRY SUBSIDING AIR N OF 15N W OF 110W.  ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF 110W...DEEP LAYERS OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RESPONDING TO UPLIFTING TRIGGERS TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.  WHETHER
IT IS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 102W OR DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF 90W...
CONVECTION INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE.  STEADY FLOW OF
E-NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS S OF 14N IS CURRENTLY ALMOST FREE OF ANY
PERTURBATIONS.  

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB REMAINS WELL N OF BASIN NEAR 43N136W 
MAINTAINING FLAT PRES GRADIENT AND KEEPING LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES
N OF MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W.

AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 93W BRINGS UPLIFT
MECHANISM TO FIRE UP SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA E OF AXIS AND SIMILAR WEATHER IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS UNFAVORABLE TO FURTHER
ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING FORMATION OF LOW PRES CENTER...BUT WOULD BE N OF E PAC
BASIN.  FRESH SW BREEZE FLOW DOES CONVERGE INTO MONSOON TROUGH
COVERING AREA S OF 12N FROM 95W TO 115W.   

ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.
SWELL FROM SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CROSSES EQUATOR TONIGHT REACHING
AS FAR N AS 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W EARLY TUE. 

LOOKING AHEAD...CONDITIONS AROUND BASIN REMAIN USUALLY QUIET FOR
THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON.  WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW
CORNER OF BASIN LATE WED WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL 
BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK BY LATE THU.

$$
WALLY BARNES