000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OFF COAST OF
GUATEMALA LATE TONIGHT.  POORLY DEFINED WAVE ENTERS REGION OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MAY PROMPT SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR 
COASTAL SECTIONS AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N92W TO 13N97W TO LOW PRES 
1007 MB AT 15N105W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 12N132W TO 11N136W
THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 107W TO 111W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
COMPLEX ARRANGEMENT OF ANTICYCLONES MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDING AND
STABLE AIR MASS N OF 17N W OF 112W AND S OF 17N W OF 135W.
SMALLER AND WEAKER ANTICYCLONE FORMING AT 20N106W ADVECTS
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT INTO E PAC FROM 98W TO 115W.
ELSEWHERE AT THE UPPER LEVELS STEADY E-NE FLOWS ACROSS BASIN
WITH LITTLE PERTURBATIONS.

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
REMNANTS OF LORENA HAVE LOST ALL OF ITS CONVECTION AS DRY AIR
SURROUNDS SYSTEM. ONLY MINOR SWIRL OF LOW STRATIFIED CLOUDS 
REMAINS IN ITS PLACE DRIFTING SW. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT.
LORENA EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

JUST S OF MONSOON TROUGH MON FROM 100W TO 105W...THEN EXPANDING
W TO 120W TUE...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH AN 
INCREASE OF SW FLOW TO A FRESH BREEZE AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT
BY LATE TUE.  IT IS STILL TO BE SEEN IF TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED
ABOVE MAY BE A FACTOR IN ANY ORGANIZATION OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AREA WHICH OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.  

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH 8-9 FT SEAS PUSH AS FAR N
AS 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BY LATE MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...1024
MB HIGH PRES CENTER N OF BASIN NEAR 42N136W MAINTAINS FLAT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE 
BREEZE AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
WALLY BARNES