000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OFF COAST OF
GUATEMALA TONIGHT.  WHILE POORLY DEFINED WAVE ENTERS REGION OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MAY PROMPT SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR 
COASTAL SECTIONS AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N92W TO 12N98W TO LOW PRES 
1010 MB AT 15N103W TO LOW PRES 1013 MB AT 12N132W TO BEYOND 
09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS
FROM 104W TO 108W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
COMPLEX ARRANGEMENT OF ANTICYCLONES MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDING AND
STABLE AIR MASS N OF 17N W OF 110W AND S OF 17N W OF 124W.
SMALLER ANTICYCLONE FORMING AT 19N104W ADVECTS ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALOFT INTO E PAC FROM 100W TO 114W.  ELSEWHERE AT THE
UPPER LEVELS STEADY E-NE FLOWS ACROSS BASIN WITH LITTLE 
PERTURBATIONS.

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
REMNANTS OF LORENA HAVE LOST MOST OF ITS CONVECTION AS DRY AIR
SURROUNDS SYSTEM. ONLY MINOR SWIRL REMAINS IN ITS PLACE DRIFTING
SW.  SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT.  LORENA EXPECTED TO FURTHER
WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

JUST S OF MONSOON TROUGH MON FROM 100W TO 105W...THEN EXPANDING
W TO 120W TUE...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH AN 
INCREASE OF SW FLOW TO A FRESH BREEZE AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT
BY LATE TUE.  IT IS STILL TO BE SEEN IF TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED
ABOVE MAY BE A FACTOR IN ANY ORGANIZATION OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AREA WHICH OTHERWISE UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.  

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH 8-9 FT SEAS PUSH AS FAR N
AS 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BY LATE MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...1024
MB HIGH PRES CENTER N OF BASIN NEAR 43N135W MAINTAINS FLAT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE 
BREEZE AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
WALLY BARNES