000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN SEP 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                     
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRES LORENA AT 24.3N 112.1W AT 0300 
UTC MOVING NW AT 3 KT WITH CENTRAL PRES 1007 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 GUSTS TO 35 KT.  ONLY REMAINING SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF E 
QUADRANT OF CENTER AND HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED IN LAST 9 
HOURS.  ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT SUN. SEE ITS LAST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
WITH MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXITS COSTA RICA LATE TONIGHT INTO E PAC WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG IT AXIS N OF 08N.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE FOLLOWS WAVE THROUGH SUN AND INCREASES SW WINDS S OF
MONSOON TROUGH...BUT WAVE ITSELF BECOMES ILL-DEFINED BY THEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N90W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 13N97W TO
14N107W TO 14N124W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 12N133W TO BEYOND
08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 105W TO 121W.

...DISCUSSION... 
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 25N130W BECOMING PART OF 
EXPANDING SECOND ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY AT 23N114W...JUST SW OF
REMNANT LOW LORENA.  BOTH GYRES MAINTAIN VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR
MASS OVER E PAC N OF 15N W OF 113W.  PLENTY OF THIS DRY AIR
INTRUDING INTO REMNANTS OF LORENA AND NOW ITS CONVECTION IS
RESTRICTED TO WITHIN 30 NM IN E QUADRANT AND DIMINISHING FAST.
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO BRINGS INTO E PAC CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS FROM SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 96W IN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO REGION WHERE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING INTO.  WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MECHANICAL UPLIFT BY THE WAVE...
ONLY UPPER LEVEL INGREDIENTS ARE NEEDED TO DETERIORATE WEATHER
IN THIS AREA.    

HIGH PRES CENTER 1024 MB WELL N OF BASIN NEAR 41N136W AND SECOND
ONE 1020 MB AT 28N148W MAINTAIN FLAT PRES GRADIENT WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE NE TRADES N OF MONSOON TROUGH W OF 125W.  

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL PUSH AS
FAR N AS 03N BY MON.

$$
WALLY BARNES