000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC FRI SEP 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                     
TROPICAL STORM LORENA AT 22.8N 110.3W AT 2100 UTC MOVING NW AT
8 KT.  CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF
40 GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLE.  LORENA EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR OR OVER THE TIP OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
ANYTIME NOW WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
...LORENA HAS BEGUN INTERACTING WITH DRY STABLE AIR TO ITS NW
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND NOT AS WARM.  ADDITIONALLY...ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND EFFECTIVELY DISTURB CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION.
LORENA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COPIOUS RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/
WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 11N92W TO 10N99W TO 
10N102W THEN RESUMES FROM 15N117W TO BEYOND 09N140W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 89W AND W OF
124W.

...DISCUSSION... 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 23N132W MAINTAIN A DRY STABLE CANOPY
OVER BASIN N OF 17N W OF 113W.  SECOND ANTICYCLONE...THIS ONE
NEARLY OVER LORENA HELPING ITS OUTFLOW...BRINGS ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCING
ITS CONVECTION E OF 89W.   

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB N OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 15N117W.
FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE RUNNING PARALLEL TO CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGING N SWELL INTO NE CORNER OF BASIN SOME OF IT INTERACTING
WITH WIND WAVES CAUSED BY LORENA.  

MODEL GUIDANCE STRENGTHENS SW WINDS S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE LATE SAT AND INCREASES IT BY SUN. 
GIVEN THE EXISTING FAVORABLE CONDITION...REGION BEARS MONITORING. 
 
ELSEWHERE...LOOSE PRES GRADIENT PROMPTS LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE
AND SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE IN BASIN.

$$
WALLY BARNES