000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC FRI SEP 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                     

TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 22.3N 109.4W AT 06/1500 UTC MOVING NW 
AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 75 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. A BAND 
OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
MEXICAN COAST FROM 22N TO 25N AFFECTING MAINLY THE COAST OF THE 
STATE OF SINALOA. THE CENTER OF LORENA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR 
OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. 
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER APPROACHES 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND... 
LORENA SHOULD WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. 
LORENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. 
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD 
SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N90W TO 10N100W... 
THEN RESUMES FROM 14N117W TO 09N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E 
OF 140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED  
FROM 05N TO 08N E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
06N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 98W 
AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM E OF LINE FROM 15N99W TO 12N101W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION... 

ELSEWHERE...A 1026 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N137W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH 
INTO THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 20N122W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST W OF 120W AND THESE 
WINDS ARE GENERATING 8 TO 10 FT SEAS WHICH ARE PROPAGATING S TO 
30N. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH 
NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WITH SEAS 8 FT N 
OF 29N. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS 
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING TO ALONG 93W BY 48 
HOURS. CURRENTLY MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE INCREASE IN WINDS 
AND SEAS AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO 
FRESH S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS 
WEEKEND WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS TO UP TO 8 FT ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 
12N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL 
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD IN 48 HOURS.

MARINE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE NHC WIND FIELD FORECAST OF LORENA 
INDICATES BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT ACROSS A SMALL AREA IN THE THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SAT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT AFFECTING 
MAINLY THE WATERS S OF 25N.

$$
GR