000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC FRI SEP 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                     

TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 21.3N 108.3W AT 06/0900 UTC OR 150 NM 
SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND 180 NM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES 
MEXICO MOVING NNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT 
...180 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT...45 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT...AND 90 
NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF LORENA. LORENA IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY 
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY 
LATE SUN NIGHT AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER SSTS. LORENA WILL BRING 
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES TO THE SW MEXICO COAST AND THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N99W...THEN 
RESUMES FROM 15N117W TO 10N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 
140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
02N TO 07N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 
NM E OF A LINE FROM 10N96W TO 05N103W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION... 

ELSEWHERE...1028 MB HIGH PRES IS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS 
NEAR 40N137W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH INTO THE AREA NEAR 
32N135W TO 22N122W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
OCCURRING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST W OF 120W AND THESE WINDS ARE 
GENERATING 8 TO 10 FT SEAS WHICH ARE PROPAGATING S TO 30N. 
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS DOMINATE 
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING TO ALONG 93W BY 48 
HOURS. CURRENTLY MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE INCREASE IN WINDS 
AND SEAS AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO 
FRESH S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS 
WEEKEND WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS TO UP TO 8 FT ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 
12N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W.

$$
LEWITSKY