000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060303
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC FRI SEP 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                     
TROPICAL STORM LORENA AT 20.4N 107.6W AT 0300 UTC MOVE NW OR
325 DEG AT 11 KT WITH CENTRAL PRES 1005 MB AND MAXIMUM WIND
SPEED OF 35 GUSTS TO 45 KT. LORENA REMAINS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
ANTICYCLONE ABOVE PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW...PLUS THE WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
SUSTAIN FURTHER ORGANIZATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  BUT
COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR MASS ARE NOT FAR AWAY AND LORENA IS
LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT ONCE IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  LORENA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEN.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION...COPIOUS
RAINFALL...COVER LARGE AREA WITHIN 300 NM N OF CENTER.  TWO 
ADDITIONAL ISSUES ARE THE POSSIBLE LARGE S SWELLS FUNNELING UP
THROUGH GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND LARGE BREAKERS LIKELY ALONG ITS
COASTS.  

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR
PROGRESS OF LORENA.  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SEE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 08N99W THEN RESUMES SW OF T.S.
LORENA FROM 13N111W TO 09N136W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S 
AND 150 NM N OF AXIS E OF 93W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 113W TO 120W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
ABOVE NORMAL PRESSURES AND WEAK GRADIENT PREVAILS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS REGION WITH MODEL GUIDANCE POINTING TO LITTLE CHANGE
DURING NEXT 48 HOURS EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF LORENA. 

LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK GRADIENT ALLOWS SEAS
ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN TO REMAIN 6 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
AREA OF 6-7 FT SEAS N OF 23N FROM 118W TO 124W WHERE A FRESH 
NORTHERLY WIND DIGS SE ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST.

$$
WALLY BARNES