000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC THU SEP 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                     
TROPICAL STORM LORENA AT 19.2N 106.6W AT 2100 UTC MOVE NW OR
325 DEG AT 10 KT WITH CENTRAL PRES 1003 MB AND MAXIMUM WIND
SPEED OF 35 GUSTS TO 45 KT. LORENA REMAINS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
ANTICYCLONE ABOVE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PLUS ABUNDANT
AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN FURTHER ORGANIZATION ON
ITS NW TRACK.  BUT COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR MASS ARE NOT FAR
AWAY AND LORENA IS LIKELY ENCOUNTER ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT ONCE IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  LORENA EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THEN. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION...COPIOUS RAINFALL...COVER LARGE AREA WITHIN 300 NM N
OF CENTER. TWO ADDITIONAL ISSUES ARE THE POSSIBLE LARGE S SWELLS
FUNNELING UP THROUGH GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND LIKELY LARGE BREAKERS
ALONG ITS COASTS.  

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR
LORENA PATH. TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 08N99W THEN RESUMES SW OF T.S.
LORENA FROM 13N111W TO 09N136W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S 
AND 150 NM N OF AXIS E OF 93W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 113W TO 120W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
ABOVE NORMAL PRESSURES AND WEAK GRADIENT PREVAILS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS REGION WITH MODEL GUIDANCE POINTING TO LITTLE CHANGE
DURING NEXT 48 HOURS EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF LORENA. 

LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK GRADIENT ALLOWS SEAS
ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN TO REMAIN 6 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
AREA OF 6-7 FT SEAS N OF 23N FROM 118W TO 124W WHERE A FRESH 
NORTHERLY WIND DIGS SE ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST.

$$
WALLY BARNES