000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC THU SEP 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
                                           
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 106.6W AT 
05/1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 
KT GUSTS 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING 
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM 
THIS EVENING. AN EARLIER ASCAT HIGH RESOLUTION SHOWED A RIBBON 
OF 25-30 KT WINDS NE OF THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN 
103W AND 107W. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF T.D. TWELVE-E IS LOCATED 
SOUTHWEST OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SAT AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER SW OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. INTERESTS IN SW MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD 
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THIS TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY ON SATURDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH 
IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AQUA 
BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 08N93W TO 09N90W TO 11N100W THEN 
RESUMES SW OF T.D. TWELVE-E FROM 14N112W TO 12N125W TO 10N134W 
THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 110 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 
87W...AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION 
AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS EXCEPT 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE. 

LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT IS 
ALLOWING SEAS ACROSS THE REGION TO REMAIN 6 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 
FOR AN AREA OF 6-7 FT SEAS N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W WHERE 
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BLOWING. IN ADDITION...EXPECT 
BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 7 ROUGHLY BETWEEN 105W AND 115W IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH IN 24-48 HOURS.

$$
GR