000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC THU SEP 5 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
                                           
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12-E CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 106.1W 1006 MB AT 
0900 UTC SEP 05 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER 
TODAY. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 0440 UTC SHOWED A RIBBON OF 
25-30 KT WINDS NE OF THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND E OF THE 
CENTER....AND SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRI AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER SW OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. INTERESTS IN SW MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD 
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N93W TO 12N100W... 
THEN RESUMES SW OF T.D. 12-E FROM 15N11W TO 09N135W...THEN 
CONTINUES AS ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 
120W.

...DISCUSSION... 

VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION 
AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS EXCEPT 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE. LIGHT 
TO GENTLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT IS ALLOWING 
SEAS ACROSS THE REGION TO REMAIN 6 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR AN 
AREA OF 6-7 FT SEAS N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. 

$$
MUNDELL