000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC THU SEP 5 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
LOW PRES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 17.1N106.1W OR ABOUT 130 NM
S-SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CAUSING WIDE PATH OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  STILL THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT INITIALIZED TOO ACCURATELY...
IT CONTINUES IN AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH AND PATH WITH SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF TRACK.

SYSTEM DRIFT W-NW TONIGHT THEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE
NW TOWARD TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  NOT ONLY STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MEXICO BUT THE STRONG OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY PUSH
WATER INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA PRODUCING A WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SE SWELL FUNNELING EFFECT UP THROUGH THE GULF.  

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR PROGRESS OF SYSTEM.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 11N92W TO LOW PRES AT 
17.1N106.1W 1006 MB TO 14N112W TO 15N120W TO LOW PRES AT 14N124W
1011 MB TO 13N131W TO LOW PRES AT 15N137W 1011 MB TO 13N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 08N
E OF 90W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 107W TO 113W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 123W
TO 127W.

...DISCUSSION... 
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 22N122W KEEPS DRY
SUBSIDING AIR MASS N OF 20N W OF 115W.  WEAK SMALL ANTICYCLONE
AT 18N105W ENHANCES OUTFLOW ABOVE LOW PRES AT 17.1N106.1W AND 
SUPPLIES ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FEED CONVECTION.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1024 MB N OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 20N110W.
PRES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS REMAINDER OF
BASIN AWAY FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN SPECIAL FEATURES 
PARAGRAPH.  MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON LITTLE CHANGE WITHIN NEXT
48 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1011 MB REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN MONSOON
TROUGH AT 14N124W EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING NEXT
36-48 HOURS.  SECOND WEAK LOW PRES 1011 MB AT 15N137W ALSO
EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF 140W THU. 

$$
WALLY BARNES