000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC WED SEP 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
LOW PRES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 17.5N105.4W OR ABOUT 120 NM
S-SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CAUSING WIDE PATH OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
AT BOTH LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...FORMATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
STRENGTH AND PATH WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF TRACK.

SYSTEM DRIFTING W-NW THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NW TOWARD
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  NOT ONLY STRONG WINDS AND  
HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO BUT
THE STRONG OR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS MAY PUSH WATER INTO THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA PRODUCING A WELL ABOVE NORMAL SE SWELL FUNNELING
EFFECT UP THROUGH THE GULF.  

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR PROGRESS OF SYSTEM.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N94W TO LOW PRES AT 
17.5N105.4W 1006 MB TO 15N120W TO LOW PRES AT 14N124W 1012 MB
TO 13N129W TO LOW PRES AT 15N137W 1012 MB TO 14N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 08N E OF 85W...
AND WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 101W TO 110W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS FROM 122W TO 128W.

...DISCUSSION... 
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 22N121W KEEPS DRY
SUBSIDING AIR MASS N OF 19N W OF 114W.  WEAK SMALL ANTICYCLONE
AT 18N106W ENHANCES OUTFLOW ABOVE LOW PRES AT 17.5N105.4W AND 
SUPPLIES ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FEED CONVECTION.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1024 MB NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 24N115W.
PRES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS REMAINDER OF
BASIN AWAY FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN SPECIAL FEATURES 
PARAGRAPH.  MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON LITTLE CHANGE WITHIN NEXT
48 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1012 MB REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN MONSOON
TROUGH AT 14N124W EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING NEXT
36-48 HOURS.

$$
WALLY BARNES