000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC WED SEP 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR 17N105W OR ABOUT 130 NM S 
OF MANZANILLO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH 
SYSTEM HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LATEST NHC 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA A HIGH 
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FOR NOW...COMPUTER 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 
WITH PEAK WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-50 KT IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 13N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
17N105W 1006 MB TO 15N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N124W 1011 MB TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 15N136W 1011 MB TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W 
AND 82W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN... 
AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS EXCEPT 
FOR THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE THAT MAY DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL STORM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LIGHT 
TO GENTLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT IS ALLOWING 
SEAS ACROSS THE REGION TO SUBSIDE TO 6 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR 
SMALL AREA OF 6-8 FT SEAS WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 17N105W. 

A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 14N124W AND 15N136W. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

$$
GR