000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC WED SEP 4 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0600 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            

A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 17N105W HAS A BROAD WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION BUT LACKS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND 
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...IF DEEP CONVECTION IS ABLE TO INCREASE AND BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WNW DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE 
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SW COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N93W TO THE LOW PRES 
NEAR 17N105W 1007 MB TO 12N112W TO A LOW PRES NEAR 14N123W 1011 
MB TO 12N130W TO 15N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN... 
AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS EXCEPT 
FOR THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE THAT MAY DEVELOP S OF THE SOUTHERN 
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE WEAK GRADIENT IS ALLOWING SEAS ACROSS THE REGION TO SUBSIDE 
TO 5 FT OR LESS NEARLY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR SMALL AREA OF 5-6 
FT SEAS FROM 16N TO 20N W OF 135W AND ANOTHER AREA OF 6 FT SEAS 
N OF 23N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N124W AND 15N136W ARE EXPECTED TO 
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL