000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC WED SEP 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
LOW PRES SYSTEM AT 17N104W PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO...BUT CURRENTLY
DIMINISHING AS SYSTEM DRIFTS W-NW AWAY FROM THE COAST. SMALL LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION DOES NOT YET PACK ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS...BUT
ITS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH TROPICAL ORGANIZATION OF
LOW PRES AS IT STILL HAS QUITE A DISTANCE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD FOLLOW PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 10N94W TO LOW PRES AT 17N104W 1007
MB TO 12N115W TO LOW PRES AT 14N124W 1011 MB TO 13N129W TO LOW
PRES AT 15N136W 1011 MB TO 11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 106W TO 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 24N118W MAINTAINS VERY
DRY STABLE SUBSIDING AIR MASS N OF 18N W OF 110W WHILE CYCLONE
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT OVER
SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER AT 17N104W.  VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO
FAVOR SLOW STRENGTHENING OF LOW PRES FOR NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
    
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRES OF KIKO
REMAINS STATIONARY AT 23N116W AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
...THEN DISSIPATE WED. TWO OTHER WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN MONSOON TROUGH...ONE AT 124W 1011 MB AND ANOTHER AT 136W
1011 MB...ARE NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 

EXCEPT FOR ITEM ON SPECIAL FEATURE PARAGRAPH...MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY REMAIN FREE OF TROPICAL
SYSTEMS AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES