000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC TUE SEP 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
LOW PRES SYSTEM AT 17N104W PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.  SYSTEM SEEMS
TO HAVE SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING W
TO NW AWAY FROM COAST.  UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO. INTERESTS IN WESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD FOLLOW PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 10N93W TO LOW PRES AT 17N104W 1007
MB TO 12N114W TO LOW PRES AT 15N124W 1011 MB TO 13N131W TO LOW
PRES AT 15N136W 1011 MB TO 12N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 103W TO 123W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 23N119W MAINTAINS VERY
DRY STABLE SUBSIDING AIR MASS N OF 18N W OF 110W WHILE CYCLONE
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT OVER
SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER AT 17N104W.  VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO
FAVOR SLOW STRENGTHENING OF LOW PRES FOR NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
    
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRES OF KIKO
LINGERS AT 23N116W AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING...THEN
DISSIPATE WED. TWO OTHER WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
MONSOON TROUGH...ONE AT 124W AND ANOTHER AT 136W...ARE NOT
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. 

EXCEPT FOR ITEM ON SPECIAL FEATURE PARAGRAPH...MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY REMAIN FREE OF TROPICAL
SYSTEMS AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES