000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC TUE SEP 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
                
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 17N103W IS PRODUCING 
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS...WITH SOME OF THE 
SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF 
MEXICO. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION...BUT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL 
WINDS ARE NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF THE DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL 
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 10N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 17N103W 
1007 MB THEN RESUMES AT 13N110W TO PRES NEAR 15N124W 1011 MB TO 
13N130W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N136W 1011 MB TO 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 83W...FROM 10N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 115W AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KIKO IS 
STILL NOTED ON NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGES NEAR 23N116W. KIKO 
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY WED. THERE ARE TWO 
WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 
120W...ONE NEAR 15N124W AND THE OTHER NEAR 14N136W. NEITHER OF 
THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP...AND ARE 
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 

MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ARE QUITE 
BENIGN DUE A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT. THIS PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY 
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 7 FT IS EXPECTED TO LAST 
THROUGH EARLY WED...AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE DEPENDING ON THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 17N103W. 

$$
GR