000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022126
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC MON SEP 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N101W 
1008 MB AND RESUMES FROM 17N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N124W 1010 
MB TO 13N129W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N136W 1010 MB TO BEYOND 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM N AND 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 99W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED  WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

POST TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 116.6W AT 
2100 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO. KIKO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY WED.

THERE ARE A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W...ONE NEAR 15N124W AND THE OTHER NEAR 
14N136W. NEITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. ASIDE FROM KIKO MARINE 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ARE QUITE BENIGN DUE 
A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY LIGHT 
WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

LOOKING AHEAD...THERE IS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N101W. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL 
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA A LOW CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR 
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND 48 HOURS.

$$
AL