000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC MON SEP 2 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 116.4W AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. KIKO HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER 
COOL WATERS. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT 
LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY WED.
                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N102W TO 11N102W RESUMES FROM LOW PRES 
NEAR 15N125W 1010 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N136W 1010 MB TO 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-13N 
BETWEEN 110W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N128W TO 27N132W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION SW OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS 
CENTERED NEAR 21N112W WITH RIDGE FROM THE CENTER TO 15N128W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 125W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW 
IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 
13N-18N BETWEEN 99W-105W.

THERE ARE A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...ONE NEAR 15N125W AND THE OTHER NEAR 12N136W. 
NEITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ASIDE FROM KIKO 
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ARE QUITE 
BENIGN DUE A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
UNUSUALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED OR THU.

$$
DGS