000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020240
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC MON SEP 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.5N 116.1W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS TO 55 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM 
NE QUADRANT. KIKO HAS MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS AND HAS STARTED 
TO WEAKEN. AS KIKO CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND A 
MORE STABLE AIRMASS...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE WEAKENING 
TREND...WITH THE LATEST FORECAST CALLING FOR KIKO TO WEAKEN 
BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY MONDAY. 
                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 11N100W TO 11N108W. IT 
RESUMES FROM 16N122W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N125W 1010 MB TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 12N136W 1011 MB BEYOND TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 250 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
98W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THERE ARE A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...ONE NEAR 15N125W AND THE OTHER NEAR 12N136W. 
NEITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM KIKO...THE 
FORECAST AREA IS RATHER QUIET AS IT IS DOMINATED BY A VERY WEAK 
PRES GRADIENT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY CALM SEA 
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF 
KIKO...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

$$
AL