000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012126
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS CENTERED NEAR 21.8N 115.7W AT 2100 UTC 
MOVING N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N 
AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES. KIKO HAS MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS AND 
HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN. AS KIKO CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER 
WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE 
WEAKENING TREND...WITH THE LATEST FORECAST CALLING FOR KIKO TO 
WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT. 
                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 10N95W TO 11N110W. IT 
RESUMES FROM 16N122W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14.5N126W 1010 MB TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 11N136W 1010 MB BEYOND TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 
102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THERE ARE A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...ONE NEAR 14.5N126W AND THE OTHER NEAR 11N136W. 
NEITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM KIKO...THE 
FORECAST AREA IS RATHER QUIET AS IT IS DOMINATED BY A VERY WEAK 
PRES GRADIENT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY CALM SEA 
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF 
KIKO...THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

$$
AL