000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC SUN SEP 1 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 21.3N 115.6W AT 1500 UTC MOVING N OR 
360 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 45 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. 
KIKO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTERWARDS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER 
WATERS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
               
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 11N111W RESUMES FROM 16N120W TO 
1008 MB LOW 15N126W TO 1009 MB LOW 11N136W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 220 NM N AND 280 NM S OF AXIS FROM
95W-101W AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 123W-125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTER PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 22N137W WITH RIDGE FROM 
THE CENTER TO 30N130W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 24N128W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 17N W OF 125W.\

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER TROPICAL 
STORM KIKO 21N116W. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR 
THE STORM.


A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH...ONE NEAR 15N125W AND THE OTHER NEAR 11N136W. THESE LOWS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AS KIKO MOVES OVER COLD WATER AND 
WEAKENS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A VERY WEAK PRES 
GRADIENT WITH SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 1010 
AND 1016 MB. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY CALM SEA CONDITIONS 
IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF KIKO...THIS 
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST WED. A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIP UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH TO AROUND 11N104W.

$$
DGS