000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010948
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SUN SEP 1 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 20.6N 115.6W AT 0900 UTC MOVING N OR 
010 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER...AND SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER. KIKO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTERWARDS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER 
WATERS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
                                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N86W TO 13N108W...THEN RESUMES 
FROM 15N125W TO 12N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING A WEAK RIDGE IN NW WATERS IS EXPECTED 
TO BECOME STATIONARY LATER TODAY THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH 
THROUGH TUE. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS ARE EMBEDDED IN  
THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE NEAR 15N125W AND THE OTHER NEAR 
12N136W. THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-
24 HOURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AS KIKO MOVES OVER COLD WATER AND 
WEAKENS THE ENTIRE BASIN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A VERY WEAK PRES 
GRADIENT WITH SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 1010 
AND 1016 MB. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY CALM SEA CONDITIONS 
IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF KIKO...THIS 
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST WED. A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIP UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH TO AROUND 11N104W.

$$
MUNDELL