000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010249
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL STORM KIKO CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 115.8W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING N OR 010 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WAS 
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. KIKO 
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER TO A MINIMUM HURRICANE SUN 
MORNING NEAR 20.8N 115.8W. BY SUN EVENING...KIKO IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN 
TO WEAKEN. 
                                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 11N95W TO 13N102W TO 
10N108W THEN RESUMES AT 15N123W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N126W 1010 MB 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N136W 1011 MB TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 124W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW 
PRES SYSTEMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONE IS NEAR 
13N126W AND THE OTHER IS NEAR 11N136W. NO TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. ASIDE 
FROM TROPICAL STORM KIKO...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS 
ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS 
DOMINATED BY UNUSUALLY BENIGN SEA CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR. 

$$
AL