000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM KIKO CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 116.2W AT 
2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 112W AND 
117W. KIKO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER TO 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT 
OVERNIGHT NEAR 20.1N 116.4W. BY SUN EVENING...KIKO IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND 
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. 
                                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 10N94W TO 12N100W TO 
10N108W THEN RESUMES AT 16N121W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N126W 1010 MB 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N136W 1011 MB TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 30 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 124W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 135W AND 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT TRADES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 138W WITH SEAS TO 
8 FT. BY TONIGHT...THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT 
WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS ARE 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONE IS NEAR 13N126W AND THE 
OTHER IS NEAR 11N136W. NO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS 
EXPECTED WITH THESE FEATURES. AFTER TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO...THE BASIN WILL BE DOMINATED BY UNUSUALLY 
BENIGN SEA CONDITIONS. 

$$
AL