000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311512
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 116.7W AT 1500 
UTC MOVING NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM 
SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED IN A BAND TO THE E OF CENTER FROM 16N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W. T.D. ELEVEN-E IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY FURTHER...BECOMING A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM LATER 
TODAY...THEN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MON...AND TO A 
REMNANT LOW TUE AS IT DRIFTS NNW OVER COOLER WATER AND A MORE 
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
                                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N85W TO 13N95W TO 09N106W TO 11N113W THEN 
RESUMES AT LOW PRES NEAR 13N126W 1009 MB TO 11N132W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 12N137W 1011 MB TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. CLUSTER 
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 
92W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W 
AND 96W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW WATERS MAINLY WEST OF A SURFACE 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N118W TO 25N120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 136W 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT 
WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. ONE IS NEAR 13N126W AND THE OTHER IS NEAR 12N137W. NO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THESE FEATURES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS THE ONLY SYSTEM ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 20-25 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THAT AS CURRENTLY T.D. ELEVEN-E MOVES OVER COLD WATER 
AND WEAKENS THE ENTIRE BASIN WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD TROUGHS 
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED...LEADING TO 
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY BENIGN SEA CONDITIONS SUN 
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH 
THE FAR NW CORNER THIS EVENING THEN STALL WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH 
LINGERING FROM 31N135W TO BEYOND TO 29N140W. A N-S ORIENTED 
TROUGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIP UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH TO 
AROUND 11N104W. 

LOOKING AHEAD...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FORM 
A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO   
IN A FEW DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR 
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. NOW...THIS SYSTEM HAS A 
LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

$$
GR