000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 116.2W AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING NNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT WITH 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CENTERED WITHIN 90 NM OF 18N116W. 
T.D. 11-E IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER...BECOMING A MINIMAL 
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...THEN WEAKEN SUN AS IT DRIFTS NNW 
OVER COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
                                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N106W TO 12N112W... 
RESUMES AT LOW PRES NEAR 13N126W 1009 MB TO 10N132W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 12N136W 1011 MB TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS E-SE TOWARD T.D. 11-E FROM A 1022 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 29N140W. REVERSE-ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS S 
OF THE RIDGE E-NE FROM 10N140W TO T.D. 11-E. WITH TWO EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 12N136W 
AND 13N126W. SCATTEROMETER COVERAGE HAS BEEN SPOTTY DURING THE 
PAST 24 HOURS...BUT LOW-RES ASCAT DATA E OF 120W INDICATES THE 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN WITH WINDS GREATER 
THAN 20-25 KT. MODEL GUIDANCES INDICATES THAT AS T.D. 11-E MOVES 
OVER COLD WATER AND WEAKENS THE ENTIRE BASIN WILL BE DOMINATED 
BY FOUR SEPARATE BROAD TROUGHS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH 
PRESSURE EXPECTED...LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY 
BENIGN SEA CONDITIONS SUN EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A DYING 
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NW WATERS WITH A TROUGH LINGERING 
FROM 35N128W TO 26N145W. WESTERN PORTION OF MONSOON TROUGH WILL 
EXTEND FROM 12N140W TO REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E 
NEAR 21N117W. A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
WILL DIP UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH TO AROUND 11N104W. THE EASTERN 
PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 13N96W ACROSS COSTA RICA TO 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. IN THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15 KT 
OR LESS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS 5 FT OR LESS.

$$
MUNDELL