000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310247
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS CENTERED NEAR 
18.3N 115.9W AT 0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 6 KT. WINDS ARE 30 KT 
GUSTING TO 40 KT WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 
1006 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 
112W AND 120W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS FORECAST TO 
INTENSIFY TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY SAT NEAR 19.1N 
116.4W THEN SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KT SAT INTO EARLY SUN AS THE 
SYSTEM MOVES ON A NNW TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO 
WEAKEN SUN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
                                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 11N93W TO 09N105W. IT 
RESUMES AT 15N117W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N127.5W 1008 MB TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 12.5N136W 1008 MB TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 82W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N138W. REMNANT LOW OF JULIETTE 
HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH...AND WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE THREE LOW PRESSURE 
CENTERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS 
THE RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E. THE OTHER 
TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER OF 
THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS 
IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE 
FEATURES. 

$$
AL