000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.
                                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N101W TO 
11N111W. IT RESUMES AT LOW PRES NEAR 17N115W 1008 MB TO 14N122W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N128W 1008 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N135W 1008W 
MB TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
EXISTS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W-124W...WITHIN 75 NM OF A 
LINE FROM 08N84W TO 08N89W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE 
TROUGH BETWEEN 130W-132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE WATER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 15N140W. DEEP LAYER TROUGHING 
IS N OF THE AREA. SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA NW OF THE THE 
RIDGE. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT WITHIN THIS AREA 
OF SW FLOW KEEPING RATHER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS NW AND W OF 
THE RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS 
UNDER THE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT FROM 17N TO 24N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 134W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER 
THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 30N134W WITH A 
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 23N125W. TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE NEAR 17N115W...AND THE OTHER 
NEAR 12N131W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BREAKING DOWN...WITH A WESTERN PORTION THAT INCLUDES THE 
EMBEDDED LOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD WHILE AN EASTERN PORTION IS 
REFORMING ROUGHLY ALONG 09N E OF 110W. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE 
EASTERN LOW IS THE LARGER OF THE TWO...BUT THE WESTERN LOW IS 
THE STRONGER FEATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN NM OF THE LOW NEAR 17N115W 
IN THE SE QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW 
QUADRANT. SW-W WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITHIN THE AREA FROM 09N-12N 
BETWEEN 126W-131W WITH SEAS 8-11 FT. WINDS ARE 20-25 KT WITHIN 
300 NM E QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 17N115W WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. 
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT NEITHER LOW IS LIKELY TO 
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND BOTH
LOWS PRESENTLY HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
THE REMNANT LOW FORMERLY TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE IS RAPIDLY 
WEAKENING OVER COLD WATER W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27.5N116W 
WITH A PRESSURE OF 1012 MB. 

$$
AGUIRRE