000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300238
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.
                                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N95W TO 11N107W. IT 
RESUMES AT 18N114W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 16N115W TO 11N122W 
TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N131W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S AND 150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 16N115W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 12N131W.

...DISCUSSION...

RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE WAS CENTERED 
NEAR 26.7N 114.8W AT 30/0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A MORE 
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM 
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS. 

A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N134W. TWO LOW PRESSURE 
CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD MONSOON TROUGH 
CIRCULATION...ONE NEAR 16N115W AND THE OTHER NEAR 12N131W. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKDOWN PROCESS 
PROGRESSING WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION FAVORING THE CIRCULATION 
AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EASTERN LOW IS THE 
LARGER OF THE TWO...BUT THE WESTERN LOW IS THE STRONGER FEATURE. 
THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS DEPICTED 30 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTH 
SEMICIRCLE AND 25 KT IN THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE WESTERNMOST LOW. 
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT ALWAYS RESULT IN 
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS...AND PER THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER 
OUTLOOK BOTH OF THESE LOWS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
AL