000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
                                
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 08N86W TO 
11N105W. IT RESUMES AT 18N114W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 16N115W 
TO 11N123W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N130W TO BEYOND 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
30 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 114W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S AND 30 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 
133W.

...DISCUSSION...

RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE WAS CENTERED 
NEAR 26.1N 113.8W AT 29/2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A MORE 
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 
DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRI MORNING. 

A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N130W. TWO LOW PRESSURE 
CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD MONSOON TROUGH 
CIRCULATION...ONE NEAR 16N115W AND THE OTHER NEAR 13N130W. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKDOWN PROCESS 
PROGRESSING WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION STARTING TO FAVOR THE 
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 
EASTERN LOW IS THE LARGER OF THE TWO...BUT THE WESTERN LOW IS 
THE STRONGER FEATURE...WITH LATEST ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 30 KT 
WINDS IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE WESTERNMOST LOW. THE 
BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT ALWAYS RESULT IN 
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS...AND PER THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER 
OUTLOOK BOTH OF THESE LOWS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
AL