000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291701 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1700 UTC THU AUG 29 2013

UPDATED CONVECTION UNDER TROPICAL WAVE SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.
                                 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS CENTERED NEAR 25.7N 113.1W AT 
29/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 80 NM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MOVING 
NW AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. JULIETTE IS 
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED...AND IS DEPICTED 
AS THE SCATTERED STRONG TYPE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER IN THE SE 
QUADRANT. JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR 27.1N 114.9W...AND TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 
28.2N 117.4W BY EARLY FRI MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRI.

...TROPICAL WAVES...UPDATED

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W N OF 10N MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N 
OF 10N. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC 
MOISTURE POOL AS OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION.
 
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 9N85W TO 10N105W. IT 
RESUMES AT 18N114W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 15N116W TO 12N123W 
TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 109W-113W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 126W-135W...AND ALSO S OF THE TROUGH E OF 82W.

...DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
OVER ARIZONA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 
15N140W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE AREA WITH AN AXIS 
REACHING SW ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. SW FLOW IS 
PRESENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE. WITHIN THE SW FLOW 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED KEEPING RATHER DRY AND 
STABLE CONDITIONS NW AND W OF THE RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE. PATCHES OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS UNDER THE DRY AND STABLE 
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W. 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA 
W OF A LINE FROM 32N126W TO 21N140W. TO THE SE OF THE RIDGE/ 
ANTICYCLONE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE MAINLY DUE TO 
BROAD SW MONSOONAL FLOW. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO 
ENHANCE THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH 
DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N129W. A 
WEAK TROUGH IS JUST NW OF THE AREA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO 
SHIFT W TO NEAR 135W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 
95W N OF 10N MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION. THE 
EASTERN LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N115W WITH A PRES OF 1007 MB. S 
TO SW WINDS 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE WITHIN 300 
NM SE QUADRANT WITH GENERATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE SECOND LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 13N130W ALSO WITH A PRES OF 1007 MB. SW WINDS OF 
20-25 KT ARE S OF THE LOW FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 128W AND 134W WITH 
SEAS OF 8-10 FT. PER THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 
BOTH OF THESE LOWS HAVE LOW CHANCES OF DEVELOPING INTO TROPICAL 
CYCLONES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW NEAR 15N115W MOVES NE 
AND THE ONE NEAR 13N130W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. 

$$
AGUIRRE