000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
                                 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0900 UTC TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 
111.6W WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRES 999 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 45 KT GUST TO 55 KT MOVING TOWARD THE NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 
19 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE OF JULIETTE. JULIETTE WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHICH WILL CREATE 
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. JULIETTE IS THEN FORECAST TO TAKE A MORE WESTWARD 
TRACK STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A POST 
TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY FRI.
 
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 11N100W RESUMES FROM 1007 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 15N115W TO 11N120W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N131W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN
106W-113W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 128W-131W AND WITHIN 70 NM S OF AXIS FROM
133W-139W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 17N138W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. A 45-50 KT
SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS NW OF THE RIDGE FROM 26N140W 32N128W. A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE FROM 23N108W TO
17N108W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE MAJORITY OF 
CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE S OF THE AXIS WHERE THERE IS 
CONVERGENCE OF MOIST SW MONSOONAL FLOW. THERE REMAINS TWO LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD MONSOON TROUGH 
CIRCULATION. THE EASTERN LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N115W. S TO SW 
WINDS 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT. THE SECOND LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 13N130W. STRONG SW WINDS S OF THE LOW FROM 9N-13N 
BETWEEN 128W AND 134W WITH WINDS 20-30 KT AND SEAS 8-10 FT. THE 
CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF EITHER SYSTEM 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THOUGH 
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THE WESTERNMOST SYSTEM DEVELOPS 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  

$$
DGS