000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290249
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
                                 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0300 UTC TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 
110.1W WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB AND 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT GUSTING TO 50 KT MOVING TOWARD 
THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 21 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM SW AND 30 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLES OF JULIETTE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A 40 KT TROPICAL STORM. JULIETTE WILL BRING 
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHICH 
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 
MUDSLIDES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. JULIETTE IS THEN FORECAST 
TO TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK STARTING THU AFTERNOON AS THE 
SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU NIGHT AND A POST 
TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY FRI.
 
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS SPLIT WITH ONE PART EXTENDING FROM 
09N84W TO 08N90W TO 10N98W. IT THEN RESUMES FROM 18N112W TO 1006 
MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N115W TO 11N122W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
13N131W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
128W AND 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1015 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 27N131W. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS MENTIONED IN THE 
SECTION ABOVE. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE THERE IS CONVERGENCE OF MOIST SW 
MONSOONAL FLOW. THERE REMAINS TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE BROAD MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION. SATELLITE DATA 
SUGGESTS THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN...AND 
THE FORECAST MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL 
BREAK DOWN AROUND THE TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE 
STRENGTH OF THE LOWS ONCE THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS DOWN. WHILE 
THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE EASTERNMOST LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 
13N115W WILL LIKELY BE THE LARGER OF THE TWO...IT IS ANTICIPATED 
THAT THE WESTERNMOST LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 13N131W WILL BE THE 
STRONGER ONE. THIS BREAKDOWN EVENT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS FOR A 
LOW PROBABILITY OF EITHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE 
THAT THE WESTERNMOST SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  

$$
AL