000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282142
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
                                 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 2100 UTC NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS CENTERED 
NEAR 21.5N 108.6W WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 
1002 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT GUSTING TO 50 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE CENTER OF JULIETTE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A NW 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS AS A 40 KT TROPICAL STORM. JULIETTE WILL BRING HEAVY 
RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHICH WILL 
CREATE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. JULIETTE IS THEN FORECAST TO TAKE A 
MORE WNW TRACK STARTING THU AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THU NIGHT AND A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 
FRI.
 
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE FIRST PORTION 
EXTENDING FROM 09N84W TO 10N100W. IT THEN RESUMES FROM 18N112W 
TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 15N115W TO 11N122W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 12N131W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 104W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 129W AND 131W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S 
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1016 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 27N130W. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS MENTIONED IN THE 
SECTION ABOVE. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE THERE IS CONVERGENCE OF MOIST SW 
MONSOONAL FLOW. THERE REMAINS TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE LARGER MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION. SATELLITE DATA 
SUGGESTS THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN...AND 
THE FORECAST MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL 
BREAK DOWN AROUND THE TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS THU. THERE 
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOWS ONCE THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS DOWN. WHILE IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE 
WESTERNMOST LOW NEAR 12N131W WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO 
LOWS...THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW PROBABILITY THAT EITHER LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
AL