000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.
                                    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES OF 1006 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 16N104W AND ANCHORS A VERY 
ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. RECENT 
1658 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SE 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. 
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A  
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF 
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE 
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...OVER THE NEXT 
36-48 HOURS. CURRENTLY... ACTIVE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE 
SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE 
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS AREA 
OF LOW PRESSURE. INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE 
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 16N104W 1006 MB TO 
1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N109W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W 
TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N131W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 16N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W 
AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM E AND W QUADRANTS OF LOW NEAR 11N121W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 
14N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE OF 1016 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 28N129W. 
THE AREA E OF 100W REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET WHILE MAIN FEATURE 
OF CONCERN W OF 100W IS THE VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. AS IS 
TYPICAL WITH A MONSOON TROUGH...THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS 
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE RAINFALL IN THIS CASE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF MOIST 20 TO 25 KT SW 
MONSOONAL FLOW. IN GENERAL...AS NOTED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
SECTION ABOVE ACTIVE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE 
FEATURE. THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE AREAS 
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACTIVE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH 25 KT SW MONSOONAL FLOW AND 
SEAS REACHING NEAR 10 FT PREVAILING.

$$
AL