000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
                                    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES OF 1006 MB IS NEAR 15N103W AND ANCHORS A VERY ACTIVE 
MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. RECENT 1658 UTC 
ASCAT PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF 
THE LOW AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. THE 
LOW IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE THAT THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL 
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY... 
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF 
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE. INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
THIS SYSTEM.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 15N103W 1006 MB TO 
1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N108W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N121W 
TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N131W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 15N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W 
AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM E AND W QUADRANTS OF LOW NEAR 12N121W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 
14N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS W OF 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE OF 1017 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 27N130W 
WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. THE AREA E OF 100W REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET WHILE 
MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN W OF 100W IS THE VERY ACTIVE MONSOON 
TROUGH. AS IS TYPICAL WITH A MONSOON TROUGH...THE MAJORITY OF 
THE RAINFALL SOUTH OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE CONVERGENCE OF MOIST 20 TO 25 KT SW MONSOONAL FLOW. IN 
GENERAL...AS NOTED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE ACTIVE 
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE FEATURE. THERE ARE ALSO 
SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE AREAS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS WITH 25 KT SW MONSOONAL FLOW AND SEAS REACHING NEAR 11 FT 
PREVAILING.

$$
AL