000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
                                    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 16N103W. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIES THE 
LOW ALONG 103W S OF MEXICO TO 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 98W-107W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO 
NEAR 19N107W IN 24 HOURS...THEN TO NEAR 21N112W IN 48 HOURS. 
WINDS  20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT CURRENTLY ACCOMPANY THE LOW 
WITHIN 120 NM IN THE E QUADRANT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE 
TO 20-30 KT BY TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL SEAS BUILD TO 8-10 FT. BY 
48 HOURS...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN 
EFFECT BEGINNING AT 48 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THE 
LOW HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 
THAT POINT.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 12N96W THEN RESUMES FROM 13N109W 
TO LOW PRES 13N122W TO LOW PRES TO 14N134W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-7N E OF 79W AND FROM 7N-12N 
BETWEEN 113W-123W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 129W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 23N117W. SW FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO 
THE W OF THE ANTICYCLONE AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS 
THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N125W TO 29N140W. 
THIS SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 1014 MB LOW PRES JUST N OF 
THE AREA NEAR 33N133W TO 25N140W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 18N W OF 118W. 
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 109W FROM 15N INTO NW MEXICO. 
MAINLY EASTERLY/ZONAL WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA S OF 15N.

THE 1010 MB REMNANT LOW IVO IS NEAR 27N116W. NO DEEP CONVECTION 
IS PRESENT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED/SUBSIDED 
TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8 FT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS 
FORECAST TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
14N123W. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED 
NEAR THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 14N135W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE E DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS SHIFTING E WITH 
ITS PROGRESSION.

AN AREA OF 20-25 KT S-SW WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS ARE WITHIN 300 NM 
E OF A LINE FROM 13N102W TO 05N111W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT 
SLIGHTLY TO THE NW COVERING THE AREA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
100W-120W BY 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS