000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270237 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE AUG 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... 1007 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 15.5N101W. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW ALONG 101W S OF MEXICO TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 15N98W TO 09N109W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 18N106.5W IN 24 HOURS...THEN TO NEAR 21N111W IN 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT CURRENTLY ACCOMPANY THE LOW WITHIN 120 NM IN THE E QUADRANT OF THE LOW. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT BY TUE EVENING WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT. BY 48 HOURS...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 48 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THE LOW HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT POINT. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W...THEN RESUMES FROM 14N109W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N123W TO LOW PRES TO 14N135W TO BEYOND 11N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF A LINE FROM 12N109W TO 11N119W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 132W AND 139W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25N115W. SW-W FLOW COVERS THE WATERS TO THE W OF THE ANTICYCLONE AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH BREACHING THE NW CORNER FROM 32N130W TO 29N140W. THIS SUPPORTS A SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR 33N134W TO 26N140W. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT W OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER THROUGH 21N120W TO 15N140W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 109W N OF 15N INTO NW MEXICO. MAINLY EASTERLY/ZONAL WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE 1010 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO IS NEAR 27N116W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED/SUBSIDED TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8 FT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK AND BROAD 1019 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 33N127W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE-S TO NEAR 23N120W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW WATERS...WITH SEAS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT TONIGHT. WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N123W. AN EARLIER RECENT ASCAT PASS WENT RIGHT OVER THE LOW AND INDICATED ONLY MODERATE WINDS. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N135W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS...LOCALLY STRONG...AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TO THE E DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS SHIFTING E WITH ITS PROGRESSION. THE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANYING THE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH WED HELPING TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE FROM 13N102W TO 05N111W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NW COVERING THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BY 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY