000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262138 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON AUG 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... 1008 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 15.5N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW ALONG 100W S OF MEXICO TO 12N. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 18N105.5W IN 24 HOURS...THEN TO NEAR 21.5N110.5W IN 48 HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 9 FT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 KT IN 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. BY 48 HOURS...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 48 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS... ALTHOUGH THE LOW HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT POINT. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N94W...THEN RESUMES FROM 11N104W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N123W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N134W TO BEYOND 11N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N E OF 82W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA... WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 09N107W... AND WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SECOND LOW. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25N115W. SW-W FLOW COVERS THE WATERS TO THE W OF THE ANTICYCLONE AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING 30N140W. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT W OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER THROUGH 20N120W TO 15N140W. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 108W N OF 14N INTO NW MEXICO. MAINLY EASTERLY/ZONAL WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE 1008 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO IS NEAR 27N116W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY 8 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE IN AN AREA BETWEEN 60 NM AND 240 NM IN THE W AND NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN. WEAK AND BROAD 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 32N128W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE-S TO NEAR 22N117W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW WATERS...WITH SEAS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT TONIGHT. WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N123W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS WENT RIGHT OVER THE LOW AND INDICATED ONLY MODERATE WINDS. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N134W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS...LOCALLY STRONG...AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TO THE E DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS SHIFTING E WITH ITS PROGRESSION. THE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANYING THE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH WED HELPING TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE ALREADY 8 TO 9 FT FROM ROUGHLY 07N TO 12 BETWEEN 102W AND 107W AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W BY WED AFTERNOON. $$ LEWITSKY