000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261547 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON AUG 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL WAVE... A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AT 15N99W IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED TO THE N OF 10N ALONG 99W. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION TO THE N OF 12.5N BETWEEN 97W AND 104W WITH THE CONVECTION EXTENDING 120 NM INLAND MEXICO BETWEEN 100-104W. BANDING FEATURES APPEAR INTERMITTENTLY...BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS YET. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 20-30 KT LATER TODAY AND FURTHER INCREASE TO A GALE CENTER LATE TONIGHT NEAR 17.5N104W WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 30-35 KT WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE NE QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME. EXPECT THE LOW WITH GALE FORCE WINDS...OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...TO BE NEAR 17.5N104W LATE TUE...AND NEAR 21N110W EARLY WED. .THE POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF IVO IS NEAR 28N116W AND ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB AND LACK CONVECTION. CYCLONIC WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT CONTINUE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATER TODAY. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10- 11N FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TO OVER EASTERN COSTA RICA TO 09N84W...THEN W-NW TO 11N91W WHERE IT BECOMES ILL-DEFINED. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES AT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N104W...WIGGLES NW TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE AT 15N123W...THEN TURNS SW THROUGH YET ANOTHER EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE AT 12N135W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AT 10N104W... WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 15N124W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 12N135W. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04.5N77.5W TO 11N90W TO 11.5N97W...WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N91W... ELSEWHERE FROM 05-12N BETWEEN 100-118W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N120W TO 13N133W TO 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO A CREST AT 21N135W. THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS W OF A LINE FROM THE NW BAJA PENINSULA TO 20N117W TO 16N140W. UPPER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ELSEWHERE TO THE S OF 20N W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO AT 25N97W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PROVIDING THE VENTILATION ALOFT OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN 93W-107W...AND SUPPORTING THE AREAS OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ITS CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH IS PARALLELING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 80-86W AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. $$ NELSON