000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
                                    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 15N97W ALONG A 
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 98W S OF MEXICO TO 10N. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF COAST OF MEXICO 
FROM 98W TO 103W. THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE 
WNW AROUND 5 TO 10 KT WHILE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 
BUILDING SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS LOW 
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 13N97W THEN RESUMES AT LOW PRES 
NEAR 15N98W TO 9N108W THEN RESUMES TO 14N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
15N124W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 99W-104W AND WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 104W-108W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N125W TO 21N140W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS  
IS N OF N OF 20 W OF 117W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED NEAR 23N114W WITH RIDGE SW TO 15N130W.

1004 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO IS NEAR 27N116W. WINDS 20-
25 KT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. 
CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SOUTHERLY WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT LATER THIS 
MORNING FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 98W-105W THEN S TO SW WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 100W-104W AND 
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W..

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH 
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUE.

$$ 
DGS