000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.
                                    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N97W ALONG A 
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 97W S OF MEXICO TO 10N. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 
NM E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED 
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S OF MEXICO BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. THIS LOW 
AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AROUND 5 TO 10 KT 
WHILE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST 
OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL 
ACCOMPANY THE LOW IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14.5N97W 
TO 10N105W TO 12N109W...THEN RESUMES FROM 15N120W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 15N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N134W TO BEYOND 10N140W. NO ITCZ 
AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 
08N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 97W AND 109W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 125W AND 135W AND ALSO W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION EXTENDING 
FROM 32N125W TO 22N140W. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS W OF A 
LINE FROM THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER TO 20N120W TO 14N140W. 
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH 
EXTENDS FROM 1013 MB LOW PRES WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS W 
OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEAR 38N125W TO 30N125W.

1004 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO IS NEAR 26.5N115W. FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS REMOVED TO THE N OF THE 
CENTER IN A BAND BETWEEN 75 NM AND 240 NM IN THE N QUADRANT. 
ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL 
AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...NW MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE SW UNITED STATES.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING IS S OF THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED COLD FRONT FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N132W THROUGH 
30N130W TO 21N120W. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N125W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. 
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS. 
1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N134W AS 
CAPTURED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG 
WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE ALSO OCCURRING NEAR THIS NEARLY 
STATIONARY LOW.

SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION...THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH INCREASING 
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO FRESH TO STRONG WITH SEAS BUILDING 
TO 8 TO 10 FT EARLY THIS WEEK...BEGINNING FROM 05N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 96W AND 105W BY MON MORNING...SHIFTING N AND EXPANDING 
FROM E TO W THROUGH TUE EVENING WHILE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS DEVELOPS IN THE SAME AREA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS...MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUE.

$$ 
LEWITSKY