000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252059
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.
                                    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW  
CENTERED NEAR 25.7N 115.2W AT 25/2100 UTC OR 190 MI WNW OF CABO 
SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND 145 MI S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING 
NNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ 
WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
REMOVED TO THE N OF THE CENTER IN A BAND BETWEEN 120 AND 240 NM 
IN THE N QUADRANT. IVO CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COLD SSTS AND IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS... 
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NW MEXICO...AND THE SW UNITED 
STATES WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N96W ALONG A 
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 96W S OF MEXICO TO 09N. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD 
AREA N OF 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. THIS LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE 
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE W AROUND 5-10 KT WHILE PRODUCING LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW IN THE 
SHORT TERM. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N86W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 14N96W TO 10N112W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N120W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 15N125W TO 10N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM SW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 80W AND 89W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...AND ALSO FROM 09N TO 11N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION EXTENDING 
FROM 32N124W TO 22N140W. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS W OF A 
LINE FROM THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER TO 20N120W TO 13N140W. 
THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH 
EXTENDS FROM 1013 MB LOW PRES WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS W 
OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEAR 38N124W THROUGH 30N128W TO 1016 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 32N140W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING IS S OF THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED COLD FRONT FROM NEAR 27N140W TO 20N121W. WEAK 1011 MB 
LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N125W. 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE OCCURRING 
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
IN ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS.

SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION...THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH INCREASING 
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO FRESH TO STRONG WITH SEAS BUILDING 
TO 8-10 FT EARLY THIS WEEK.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS...MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUE.

$$ 
LEWITSKY