000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
                           
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 114.8W AT 0900 UTC 
OR 160 MILES W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. MOVING NNW AT 9 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

IVO IS MOVING OVER COLDER SSTS AND IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN 
TO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 114W-116W. LARGE SOUTHERLY 
SWELLS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS WELL 
AS FEEDING UP INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. THESE SWELLS ARE 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE 
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO WITH THE RISK 
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 8N ALONG 94W. A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE 
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N94W. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRES IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE W AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N94W TO 8N115W 
THEN RESUMES FROM 16N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N126W TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 140 NM N AND 200 
NM S OF AXIS FROM 87W-91W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 103W 
TO 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 
NM N AND 80 NM S OF AXIS FROM 131W-134W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF 
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 92W-101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE WELL W OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 21N140W TO 19N128W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 18N126W. DRY AND STABLE AIR 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. TROPICAL MOISTURE AND 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 
THE N-NE OVER AND AROUND IVO TO ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE 
MAINLY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL/EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT S OF 15N.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 18N W OF 123W. WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED 
STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 14N126W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW. THIS LOW IS 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE TONIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 
96W-106W ALONG WITH 8 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT MON NIGHT.

$$
DGS