000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250232 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 114.4W AT 25/0300 UTC OR 290 MI W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AND 300 MI S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IVO IS MOVING OVER COLDER SSTS AND IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY SUN NIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 120 NM AND 270 NM IN THE N AND NE QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELLS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS FEEDING UP INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO WITH THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER ALONG 92.5W S TO 07N. BROAD 1007 MB LOW PRES SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N93W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND HAS BECOME MORE ISOLATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE W AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY SUN EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 96W AND 106W ALONG WITH 8 FT SEAS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRES INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY THEN. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N93W TO 09N111W THEN RESUMES FROM 18N116W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14.5N126W TO BEYOND 11N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W... FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 109W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W...WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 130W AND 133W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST E OF 88W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A PARENT ANTICYCLONE WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 20N148W THROUGH 21N140W TO 20N127W. DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 14N W OF 125W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 21N123W. DRY AND STABLE AIR ALSO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 20N120W TO 14N140W. TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE N-NE OVER AND AROUND IVO TO ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...MAINLY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL/EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE NW WATERS FROM 29N140W TO 25N125W. WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14.5N126W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE LOW AT BEST. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF IVO AND THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/ LOW PRES AREA ABOVE...MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS...LOCALLY FRESH IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. $$ LEWITSKY